“Two high, three low “2018 spring rebar Supply tight balance pattern will still bring opportunity market
The core logic of the 2017 steel price trend is to rod clean-up, environmental protection and steel mills profit changes. 2017, the domestic economy runs well, the steel industry boom continued to expand. Steel price overall rise sharply, the variety differentiation is obvious, the performance is stronger than raw materials, steel enterprise profit and duration of innovation high, the industrial chain of various spreads and parity to create historical extremum.
Spot steel prices in the history of high, traders and downstream users have a fear of high psychology, as the marginal demand, traders do not want to winter, steel mills staged sales pressure increase will trigger a callback pressure.
December the last half of the domestic steel market price rally is obviously blocked, mainly steel demand is gradually shrinking trend, superimposed fear of high mood, and thus inhibit the continued rise in steel prices. Because of environmental protection of steel mills continued, in early December, steel stocks fell to nearly 5-year low, market resources are still supporting the high price of steel operation.
In the short term, steel market in the “low supply, low demand, low inventory, high profit, high price” pattern, the next half of the December steel price or high correction, the probability of a cliff-type plunge is lower.
Limited by the impact of the next spring after the inventory below the historical level of inventory can be foreseen, the spring supply tight balance will still bring opportunity market, steel prices are expected to usher in a wave of rise. In view of the 2017 steel price of the big rise to a large extent has been overdrawn late good, 2018 steel prices are expected to be the whole will be moderate pressure, the price of the bottom by the fundamental decision, the price of the top from the macro-level decision, thread hot roll fluctuation range between 3000-4500, hot coil overall trend will be stronger than the thread.